TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,274

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes1c29,274$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,976.039436.2%34 W · 60 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked Yes7c4,031$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,765.9720338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5337…b0c7backed Yes1c3,000$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,969.995617.9%10 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+193.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No79c2,661$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.487748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes6c2,426$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.2542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes4c1,084$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.7234846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No11c980.18$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5759121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No60c924.16$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.421,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes24c878.28$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.228337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No59c815.48$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.011,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d0…cc0abacked Yes13c804.12$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.571533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+97.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes40c735.55$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.081,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No2c700.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.151884.8%9 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+91.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No29c679.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8677151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes18c665.9$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.41,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540e…df8dbacked Yes50c623.05$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.06825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d7…a061backed No76c600$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.14944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes13c534.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.58830.7%27 W · 61 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c502.16$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.343,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No59c465.05$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4238243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c427.78$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.7512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x544d…1ecabacked Yes6c395.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,480.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes38c370.88$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.6414359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes53c370.44$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.361,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes41c364.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f0d…98d2backed No79c360.25$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2841040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No77c351.01$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.6450860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No40c348.08$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.622,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c344.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No46c336.25$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.551,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes14c331.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.213514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid+3.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes21c328.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.717057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No22c324.32$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.844,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c308.96$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No30c296.55$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes43c232.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5526744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed No35c226.39$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.337245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes9c225.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.19139.6%36 W · 55 L+12.2wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No70c221.29$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.784,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes25c219.51$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.581,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No60c219.29$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2339951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes5c215.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.811,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes48c205.67$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8764460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18014113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No75c199.85$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0424262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes60c192.39$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6910827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes44c189.29$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.213540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No51c188.51$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.872,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c179.57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes29c178.52$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.673,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No56c165.93$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.182,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes53c164.51$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.663,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6243…e014backed Yes8c146.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5523243.5%101 W · 131 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x52c6…4347backed No69c144.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-64%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes48c142.74$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.744025%10 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes41c138.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9725742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c137.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9298236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c131.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes31c131.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.395540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes44c130$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6367633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcb…e3c5backed No77c129.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No37c128.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.182,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes72c125.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.112,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes48c124.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9743540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes28c120$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.311438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes78c119.69$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.772,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d31…13c3backed No11c118.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.081435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes22c117.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0425541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes46c115.73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.949868.4%67 W · 31 L+11.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+23.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes22c115.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4516530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No52c115.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.642,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes32c113.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4147239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83dd…1517backed Yes63c112.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.927957%45 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c109.41$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes10c104.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2617940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No65c102.22$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5432440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2827129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7934831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No70c93.77$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5324466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes56c87.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.666243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No48c86.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0638146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No79c85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.852,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed No80c83.56$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8517251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes46c83.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2621132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c82.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.481,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No56c82.74$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.212,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes46c82.05$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.652,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes55c81.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c81.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.536,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes43c80.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.819146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No26c79.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9426442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb407…6eb1backed Yes29c79.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.032839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes63c77.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.628247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes50c75.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6510463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c75.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.394,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x660c…7f7abacked Yes30c74.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.381952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.