TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,861 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9df4…b77bbacked Yes1c17,431$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes2c1,737$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1342849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes57c936.65$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.481,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes53c666.71$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.697748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c598.82$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5838243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes57c510.53$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8838655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes20c457.46$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.863540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes28c441.94$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.642,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes11c405.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No48c394.91$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.761,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b9…427cbacked No77c378$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.33764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes40c371.2$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8914359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No65c365.69$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8219060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6da…9270backed Yes17c363.68$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes50c346$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.591,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No70c316.46$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.854,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes46c303.11$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.341,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No35c275.62$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.749646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes14c256.87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2459121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No56c247.17$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No55c241.56$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3536057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes21c214$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1632440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes44c207.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5612853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes51c207.16$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No48c202.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.178845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes18c186.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.939139.6%36 W · 55 L+12.2wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes9c174.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes54c167.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1953258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes36c161.73$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5237150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No33c159.21$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.0338146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No35c154.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes28c152.52$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4543540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c147.82$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c147.21$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.236,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes21c144.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314025%10 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes62c134$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes16c121.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.935540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes12c108.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes47c108$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7612350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes23c107.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255129.4%15 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes25c105$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9534935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes31c104.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3217940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes10c102.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.092748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes16c102.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6940337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes22c101.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9313430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes27c100.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.973,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4772042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1534831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes30c96.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes31c96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9325541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes42c92.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0312927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes12c91.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1430834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes41c91.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.549868.4%67 W · 31 L+11.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+23.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c84.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.741,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes17c82.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.053357.6%19 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+53.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked No58c79.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7714060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e25…c7dbbacked Yes14c74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.361414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-81.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes49c72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.373514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid+3.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No60c65.72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.482,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes38c65.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6811856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c59.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes62c59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.425442.6%23 W · 31 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No55c55.53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes75c55.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4342061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No64c54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No61c53.68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.134,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No51c49.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.592,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4e…dba5backed No63c47.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+142.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes34c46.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0837570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No51c46.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.762,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes42c46.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4310463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87c8…e0a9backed Yes41c45.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-65.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes57c45.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes46c43.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No65c42.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.025,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c42.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.412,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No49c42.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.732,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes42c41.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.339346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8225239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes49c38.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No52c37.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.042,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa5…7059backed Yes44c37.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No61c36.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.373,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540e…df8dbacked No35c36.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.76825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes55c32.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8524466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No45c32.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.852,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No57c31.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8277151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No34c31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4615236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No53c29.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.872,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x577e…3756backed Yes38c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea25…0447backed Yes40c26.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6310836.1%39 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No56c25.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2518671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No61c23.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.052,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.