Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40232c84d1b9f3caa4f104b8112ec066d764d5496b4e0fdd1452b9361fe8b48c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9df4…b77bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,431$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 2c | 1,737$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 57c | 936.65$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes | 53c | 666.71$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.69 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 598.82$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.58 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 510.53$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.88 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 20c | 457.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 441.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 405.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 394.91$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 77c | 378$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 40c | 371.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 65c | 365.69$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…9270backed Yes | 17c | 363.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 346$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 316.46$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 46c | 303.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 35c | 275.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 256.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 247.17$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 55c | 241.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 21c | 214$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 44c | 207.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 207.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 48c | 202.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.17 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 18c | 186.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 174.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 54c | 167.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 36c | 161.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 33c | 159.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 35c | 154.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 28c | 152.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 147.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 147.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 21c | 144.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 62c | 134$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 16c | 121.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 12c | 108.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 47c | 108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 23c | 107.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 31c | 104.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 10c | 102.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 16c | 102.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 22c | 101.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 100.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 30c | 96.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 42c | 92.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 12c | 91.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 41c | 91.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 84.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 17c | 82.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 58c | 79.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…c7dbbacked Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 65.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 38c | 65.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 59.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 62c | 59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 55.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 55.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 53.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 49.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed No | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 34c | 46.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 46.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 42c | 46.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…e0a9backed Yes | 41c | 45.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 57c | 45.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 46c | 43.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 42.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 42.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 42.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 42c | 41.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 38.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 37.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 44c | 37.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 36.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…df8dbacked No | 35c | 36.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 55c | 32.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 32.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 57c | 31.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 29.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 40c | 26.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 56c | 25.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.