TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes15c753.89$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.851,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No77c742.81$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.031,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes58c480$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3524466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes13c390.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9159121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed No31c358.15$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.038337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes7c354.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes12c336$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3272042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No70c290.64$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes69c289.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes70c265.43$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18639951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c238.71$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.734,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c215.07$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.652,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes9c193.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.583,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes15c190.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No60c190.47$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1940337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c160$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes11c154.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7510426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes17c150.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes13c149.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.182,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes8c137.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c134.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.477,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes68c125.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.611,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes27c121.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No71c119.75$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.822,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes15c115$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.459868.4%67 W · 31 L+11.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+23.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes12c112.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5126442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes40c111.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No68c110.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.22,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2434831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes19c99.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.773357.6%19 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+53.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No38c98.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.346,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No43c98.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.952,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes11c98.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.193,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No45c94.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.672,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes15c86.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.659146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No55c82.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.372,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa485…7b85backed Yes16c81.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.38per pick49cpaid-84.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes36c80.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2424139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c79.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes64c73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4327037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes19c72.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8179947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No79c71.72$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.921,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…6278backed Yes18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes33c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.783132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No67c63.1$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.052,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes73c62.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c62.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No50c60.52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.992,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c60.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes22c58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c56.78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.924,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes32c55.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes28c51.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2910432.7%34 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6daa…954abacked Yes58c49.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.561127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No65c47.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.744,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes23c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes32c44.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4638146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked No36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.625742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes79c38.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+142.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No61c37.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8620056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes52c36.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.12748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c36.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.079,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1659…42f8backed Yes69c36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked Yes70c35.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254568.9%31 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No67c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.445853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c31.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No69c30.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.728847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No72c30.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6362275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No78c30.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.555,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd81…c215backed No47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-48.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes62c29.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3611983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes71c29.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.719166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes59c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.457057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7810434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9877…61b5backed Yes67c27.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No54c25.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5371057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No67c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5318567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6266…623abacked Yes67c22.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick64cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No68c22.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.062,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fb…2c0cbacked Yes50c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.911735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked No67c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.262737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes68c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9649750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No69c21.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.731,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8815…a510backed No75c20.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No72c20.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.731,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes50c20.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1088028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b02…abdfbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.44325.6%11 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa008…a38abacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No63c19.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.241,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a73…9913backed Yes71c18.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5c…c6f3backed No60c16.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No73c14.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.064957.1%28 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.