World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ba6c60e9aa8db6b1a0213348c6bcad9ba0e2645d52434e1941cd8759f64d873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 1,301$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.68 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 28c | 1,235$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.76 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 5c | 647.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 4c | 614.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 606.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 603.08$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.17 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 548.34$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 533$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 61c | 396.95$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 387.66$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 327.75$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 49c | 325.45$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 309.85$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 37c | 283.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 56c | 271.91$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 44c | 235.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 230.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +214%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 35c | 211.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 34c | 203.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 34c | 202.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 49c | 199.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 193$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 34c | 192.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 192.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 7c | 187.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 184.81$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 179.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 16c | 159.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 157.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 150.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 150.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 47c | 150.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 149.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 148.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 136.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 77c | 135.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 126.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 123.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 24c | 115.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 35cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 114.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 20c | 113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 25c | 109.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 109.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 49c | 108.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 103.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 29c | 101.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 45c | 97.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 96.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 22c | 95.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 93.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 46c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 54c | 79.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 53c | 75.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 28c | 74.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 32c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 76c | 70.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 69.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 20c | 69.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 19c | 67.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 65.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 29c | 64.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 63.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…77e4backed Yes | 46c | 63.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 73c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 28c | 53.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 46c | 49.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 42c | 49.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 47.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 47.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 34c | 45.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 43.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 32c | 42.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 42.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…be53backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 38.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.