World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007a2b6aef013c717d7296c653b7751c38905edebafb85500609bdb7cf2bd2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 38c | 905.65$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.76 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Yes | 2c | 642$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 67c | 533$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 47c | 407.2$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 56c | 404.82$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 80c | 400$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 399.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 393$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 26c | 388.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 9c | 359.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 339.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 26c | 332.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 317.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 278.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 68c | 275$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 272.21$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 248.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 245.84$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 15c | 238.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 237.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 228.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 15c | 225.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 207.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 202.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…a39bbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 13c | 180.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 34c | 173.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 20c | 169.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 163.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 162.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 28c | 162.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 162$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 21c | 156.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 42c | 151.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 149.35$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 27c | 146.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 145.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 139.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 10c | 138.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 37c | 134.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 129.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 118.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 9c | 114.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 114.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 13c | 114.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 114$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 111.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 28c | 106.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 46c | 106$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 105.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 99.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 91.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 91.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 91.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 88.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 35c | 87.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 85.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 78c | 85.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 15c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 80.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 32c | 77.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…cd36backed Yes | 24c | 77.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 19c | 75.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 74.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 27c | 69.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 68.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 45c | 65.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 65.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 46c | 65.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 45c | 65.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 59c | 64.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 62c | 56.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 24c | 55.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 54.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 54.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.