World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac3e9a499f550cde73b4e118047c0664583fe554f097bf82b263db9dfe66ac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 3,820$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.2 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 11c | 1,187$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 875.95$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.26 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 775.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 78c | 735.35$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 19c | 575.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…d048backed Yes | 27c | 508.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 502.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 50c | 492.45$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 79c | 450$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 440.94$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 419.39$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 409.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 12c | 399.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 6c | 386.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 370.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 10c | 349.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 347.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.91 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 341.39$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 330.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 21c | 314.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 301.21$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 8c | 279.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 260.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 243.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 205.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…cd36backed Yes | 21c | 203.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 75c | 193.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 5c | 192.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 180$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 21c | 180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 64c | 176.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 17c | 175.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 162.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 156.55$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 154.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 12c | 129.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 128.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 78c | 127.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 127.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 20c | 127.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 78c | 124.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 119.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 15c | 118.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 114.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 44c | 114.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 74c | 112$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 110.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 22c | 108.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 22c | 107.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 23c | 101.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 93.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 55c | 91.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 73c | 90.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 45c | 90.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 88.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 16c | 81.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 23c | 81.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 50c | 71.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 67.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 76c | 65.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 16c | 63.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 48c | 62.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 17c | 61.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked No | 79c | 55.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 45.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 22c | 44.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 29c | 39.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 77c | 39.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…07cfbacked Yes | 33c | 38.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 37.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 75c | 37.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 29.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 77c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 73c | 20.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.