World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4907b3b4af73ff87dae558a8a680c7481f7bded9cbfffcf2a8792bcf144e81f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 4,052$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.3 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 63c | 1,786$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 12c | 1,681$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.79 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 1c | 1,041$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.89 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 30c | 1,005$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.02 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 2c | 688.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 4c | 660.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.49 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 645.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 643.54$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.25 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 605.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.65 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 2c | 572.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.51 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +214%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…d048backed Yes | 16c | 556.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…8c15backed Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 447.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.45 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 8c | 439.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +196.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 63c | 438.21$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 416.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.16 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 388.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.76 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 364.48$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 349.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 35c | 347.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 20c | 332$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 327.52$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 41c | 326.24$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.03 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 302.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 301.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 299.72$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 293.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.77 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 23c | 281.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 248.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 19c | 243.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 239.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 33c | 236.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 221.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 214.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.05 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 203.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 10c | 200.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 198.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 190.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 5c | 189.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 6c | 177.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +287.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 176.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 161.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 10c | 159.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 57c | 158.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 46c | 144.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 23c | 144.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 28c | 133.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 130.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 125.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 122.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 63c | 117.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 16c | 117.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 51c | 113.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 108.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 25c | 107.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 17c | 100.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 79c | 88.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 71c | 80.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 73c | 78.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 75c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 59.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 57.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 20c | 56.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…e4bdbacked Yes | 41c | 55.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 55.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 50c | 43.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 38.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…9d1abacked Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 76c | 35.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 27.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 63c | 24.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 23.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…132ebacked Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 51c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 67c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 78c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 77c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.