World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eadacfd4ad535af02f2fa3487c08528c026aca5880ab2cd4aaaa41dc2e19416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 11,094$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 8c | 11,015$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 6c | 4,057$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 5c | 1,818$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,206$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 4c | 787.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…d048backed Yes | 4c | 744.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 743.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 2c | 723.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 3c | 686.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 2c | 602.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 6c | 555.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +214%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 3c | 540.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 520.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 79c | 516.95$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 5c | 511.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 40c | 486.08$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 5c | 463.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 461.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.64 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 4c | 387.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 19c | 359.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 42c | 356.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 6c | 297$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 273.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 50c | 261.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…ac1fbacked Yes | 4c | 252.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 230.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 19c | 222.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 209.91$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 20c | 208.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 6c | 198$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 10c | 195$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 11c | 190.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 160.42$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 36c | 154.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 43c | 145.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 23c | 142.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 29c | 138.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 15c | 101.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 60c | 98.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 98.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 72.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 35c | 71.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 23c | 67.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 74c | 54.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 38c | 52.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 80c | 50.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 30c | 49.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 76c | 39.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34c…9fecbacked No | 80c | 39.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 36.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.