World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bc3fd483f0a602839741afb015f53890146dda042dfbbabfc1e683802dc92e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 2,446$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.53 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 14c | 1,069$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 694.64$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.81 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 562.84$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 3c | 458.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 433.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 359$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 354.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 70c | 332.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 329$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 320.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 5c | 275.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +214%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 274.6$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 13c | 261.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…82eabacked Yes | 34c | 231.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 5c | 229.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 228.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 225.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 183.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 27c | 152.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 150.4$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 145.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 65c | 139.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 137.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 19c | 125.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 25c | 121.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 40c | 120.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 116.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 22c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 94.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 19c | 90.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 85.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 24c | 83.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 79.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 79.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 37c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 15c | 69.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 79c | 63.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 61.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 60.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 25c | 53.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 75c | 45.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 63c | 37.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 33.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked No | 78c | 27.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 74c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 78c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.