Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a0411c7df9a575108fb63a6cdd8caa9845d6b711acc0fe2b8f2a2652e189a1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 1,006$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.35 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 49c | 528.32$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 526.29$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 390.25$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 58c | 342.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 46c | 252.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 46c | 218.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 67c | 214.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 204.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 36c | 176$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 27c | 172.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 38c | 168.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 26c | 167.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 52c | 166.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 22c | 156.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 107.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 54c | 92.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 87.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 79.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 76.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 41c | 75.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 76c | 65.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 52c | 65.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 23c | 60.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 29c | 56.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 53.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 53.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 51.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 44.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 41.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 39.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 37c | 39.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 32c | 39.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 75c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 49c | 33.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 48c | 27.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 23.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 53c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…9082backed Yes | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 63c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 80c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.