World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88baaabb45971bf21c5e16a22ea4a44248860fb93f42b96085bf665544e8d8b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 1,171$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.79 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 567.66$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.04 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 540$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.9 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 342.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.38 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 245.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 211.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 194.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 47c | 193$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 171$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 41c | 153.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 148.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 144.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 133.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 40c | 131.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 54c | 129.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 81.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 73.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 62.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 60.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 42c | 55.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 47.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 41c | 44.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 26c | 42.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 64c | 40.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 38.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 30.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 30.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 27.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 58c | 26.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc90b…7190backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 23.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 47c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 50c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…cc9cbacked Yes | 67c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.