World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x984a1c01c2470efee2ec4219852fb48782d0259b786ee6808343d5499c08dce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,646$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.33 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 440$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 381.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.18 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 337.57$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 303.52$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 242.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 5c | 231.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 214.49$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 184.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 182.33$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 166.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed Yes | 48c | 152$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 105.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 97.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 67c | 91.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 61c | 76.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 76.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 75.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 56.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 55.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 67c | 51.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 58c | 51.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 60c | 50.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 46.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 46.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 43.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 41.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 60c | 40.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 35.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…ed5dbacked Yes | 42c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed Yes | 42c | 34.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 31.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 45c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 27.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…6041backed No | 60c | 27.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 26.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 25.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 45c | 23.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 23.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 47c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 77c | 22.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 62c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 62c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 20.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.