Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbba8eaa5c3079651a7630601fc30a33d7ba13a455a4ecd4bf1b58cfe609c7c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8682…15a9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 420.27$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 32c | 321.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 271.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 56c | 270.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 227.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 66c | 226.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 225.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 217.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 207.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 180.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 45c | 176.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 42c | 168.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 163.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 57c | 159.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 159.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 74c | 155.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 149.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 114.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 100.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 99.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 45c | 98.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 92.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 53c | 87.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 84.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 83.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 81.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 58c | 77.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 73.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 51c | 70.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 51c | 69.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 67.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 63.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 56.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 50.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 46.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 45.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 42.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 40.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 39.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 36.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 36.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 57c | 33.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 32.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 52c | 29.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 28.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 27.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 27.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…e41cbacked No | 76c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 51c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 24.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.