TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f98…e397backed Yes48c1,252$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.8433154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No49c633.38$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.8939543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes31c556.28$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.1550860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes55c253.52$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.955,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No67c252.58$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.371,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes51c241.37$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.672,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No58c179.19$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.254,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No36c175.26$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.881,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c172.29$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.324,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c157.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.389,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes75c155.32$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5256048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c131.08$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.465,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes33c126.66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0317251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes40c123.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0723129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No69c123.27$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0631748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c115.8$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No43c101.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.052,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No39c101.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5934831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes38c91.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1126442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No50c84.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.41,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No69c72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6889557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No61c69.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8317859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No56c66.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.463,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No49c66.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No49c66.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.212,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No61c65.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.253,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No31c62.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No50c62.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c61.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.354,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes49c60.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7416656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c60.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.836,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No40c59.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.892,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb52…ef8abacked No69c58.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.293450%17 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes50c57.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.691070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb3e…0e9dbacked No46c56.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No51c56.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8218240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c56.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes55c54.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3461249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f23…29b2backed No67c52.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.471729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes39c51.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.558138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No47c51.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.052,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked No69c48.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.422737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6380…4446backed Yes56c48.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No67c48.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.191,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6672…47e4backed Yes49c45.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.252065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes51c44.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.611,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No26c43.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.272,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes46c43.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.223,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.25448.1%26 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x722e…faddbacked No46c39.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.962842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes40c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.317057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No36c36.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.262,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No66c36.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No55c35.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.527,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No46c33.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No45c33.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c33.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.513,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No38c33.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.552,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No40c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.152,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3e…814abacked Yes47c32.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.186350.8%32 W · 31 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No37c30.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.242,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes35c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c29.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes48c28.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.874946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3065…ad8dbacked Yes56c26.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.84683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes44c26.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6325342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3df…463dbacked No67c23.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.819456.4%53 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No49c23.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.592,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.534,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.86357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No67c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7318567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No66c18.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3330834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No61c18.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0813254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.057856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.324,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No68c14.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.