Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51c502e26b713b93d77c4746130216bc0d326a90d22b1ce30f34df7ac793da9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 599.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 434$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.51 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 25c | 392$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.66 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 379.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 13c | 309.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.13 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 264.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 16c | 166.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 140.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 32c | 137$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 75c | 133.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 108.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…1327backed No | 16c | 89.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 82.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 79.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 21c | 76.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 64.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 79c | 62.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 62.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 76c | 42.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 33c | 34.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 40c | 32.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 29.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 23.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 64c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 58c | 19.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.