Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2bfd504263758e80f0d7506369f22f09a2897d892f65a1f5a7ebe14901d2ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 831.68$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 64c | 424.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 370.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 38c | 320.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.94 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 293.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 27c | 275$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.95 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 56c | 225$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 43c | 200.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 176.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 43c | 173.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 49c | 173$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 143.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 128.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 125.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 49c | 109.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 40c | 105.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 99.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…80dfbacked No | 51c | 98.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 89.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 47c | 79.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 73.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 72.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 61c | 72.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 58c | 60.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 55.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 47c | 44.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 54c | 43.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 40.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 74c | 39.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 39.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 38.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 53c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 32.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 53c | 28.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 52c | 27.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 27.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…f912backed No | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 53c | 22.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 22.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 53c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 70c | 21.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…c794backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 50c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 51c | 20.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.