World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0caeab82da8f21fb5cb2a4155865b3d02166efee374812b53b6ecd0077b482a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 1,141$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.41 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 335.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 220.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 190.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 47c | 190.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 27c | 172.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 165.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 53c | 165.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 42c | 154.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 142.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 49c | 130$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 124.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 116.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 55c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 46c | 88.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 75.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 74c | 67.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 64.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 78c | 63.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 49c | 60.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 50.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 38c | 44.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +123%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 39.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 55c | 33.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 47c | 29.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 53c | 24.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 68c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.