Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4293b66ad198a9c5690bc7f63175f3c5aa2e3eda400b46f302b7c41f4bdd0d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 22c | 1,369$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 1c | 1,152$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539c…74a4backed No | 47c | 532.13$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…7e81backed No | 65c | 385.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 26c | 359.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 17c | 313.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 80c | 221.64$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 186.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 175.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…dfd2backed Yes | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 137.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 77c | 127.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 20c | 124.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 76c | 117.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 109.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 13c | 101$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 92.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 45c | 89.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 88.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 50c | 76.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 65c | 74.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 42c | 73.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…a14cbacked No | 54c | 72.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 38c | 65.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 17c | 62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 19c | 61.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 23c | 58.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 56.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 40c | 50.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 46c | 50.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 42c | 40.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 39.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 33.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 31.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 26.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked No | 71c | 25.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 25.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 24.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 73c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.