Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abdedc1b7dbc008435fb77cec8b563c5ff2d8c3208ce4aaeca75bfd3dca95f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 328.75$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 35c | 294.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 184.16$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 167.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 68c | 158.6$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 118.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 104.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 102.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 89.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 25c | 80.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 69c | 80.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 80.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 61c | 75.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 74.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 63c | 72.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 30c | 71.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 22c | 70.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 67.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 65.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 44c | 62.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 61.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 55.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 51.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 22c | 48.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 48.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 41.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 78c | 37.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 35.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 31.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.