Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccfe97b63583d1f5f51eedf9518a1b5d9bee6aa7f2dcfa5eeaa53fa40c81b05e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 663.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 634.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 75c | 600.14$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 459.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 369.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.06 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 325.09$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 273.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 44c | 201.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 27c | 188.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 160.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 144.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.86 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 136.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 128.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 111.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 15c | 104.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 104.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 74c | 100.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 97.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 73c | 90.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 13c | 87.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 81.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 80.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 69.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 67.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 80c | 65.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 63.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 55.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 78c | 54.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 48.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 29c | 43.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 75c | 38.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 36.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 34.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…c794backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.