Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b5b71436a4b38c0818670ff2143bc4fc2ce380299d94624360d0bb76d50ab8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 55c | 735.81$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.47 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 68c | 514.7$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 33c | 499.47$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.77 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 401.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 354.3$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 316.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 69c | 290.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 42c | 286.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.61 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…8f8abacked Yes | 80c | 250.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 194.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 180.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 180.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 179.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 55c | 172.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 47c | 170.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 142.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 133.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 129.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 49c | 125.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 123.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 119.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 108$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 69c | 105.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 34c | 102.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 97.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 96.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 56c | 87.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 87.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 86.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 84.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 75.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 75.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 74.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 28c | 69.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 47c | 66.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ec01backed Yes | 72c | 66.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 31c | 63.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 59.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 58.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 55.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 50.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 49.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 46c | 49.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 47.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 29c | 46.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 46.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 67c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 46c | 44.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 37c | 43.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 43.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 40.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 45c | 39.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 32c | 39.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 47c | 37.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 36.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 68c | 36.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 69c | 36.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 34.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 50c | 30.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…e8e1backed No | 45c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 27.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 68c | 25.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 52c | 25.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 69c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 23.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…22b5backed Yes | 72c | 22.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 70c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 71c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.