Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9161fe6e6778f4627209cf60a9e1e43d23a585b1bc0a29f013450349c15bab5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 672.7$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.24 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 22c | 439.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 312.01$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 242.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 197.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 188$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 177.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 29c | 146.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4102…5f87backed Yes | 12c | 143.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 141.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 79c | 126.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 115.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 102.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 36c | 91.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…24cdbacked Yes | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 88.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 82.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 76.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 35c | 72.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 35c | 71.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 66c | 70.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 36c | 70.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 68.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 67.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 66.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 63.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 63.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 61.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 80c | 57.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 53.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 53.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 50.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 46.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 46.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 43.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 38.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 37.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed No | 78c | 31.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 74c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.