World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a4c99cacb34ef0dd54a9d94c035efa77986fd4d6d30147d34419b6624b8823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 52c | 1,799$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 489.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 438.65$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 392.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.61 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 48c | 389.39$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 50c | 388.4$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 349.58$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 58c | 345$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 61c | 339.24$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 328.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 284$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 78c | 255.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 243.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 42c | 235.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 210.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 47c | 199.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 42c | 188.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 160.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 49c | 157.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 156.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 47c | 147$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 22c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed No | 22c | 129.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 46c | 112$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 109.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 106.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 100.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 60c | 100.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 41c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 72c | 97.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 38c | 95.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 95.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 42c | 94.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 92.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 13c | 88.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 60c | 83.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 39c | 82.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 59c | 78.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 75.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 41c | 72.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 72.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 59c | 72.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 16c | 69.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 67.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 78c | 64.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 47c | 63.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…4414backed Yes | 41c | 63.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 62.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 28c | 62.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 61.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 33c | 59.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 56.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 58c | 49.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 48.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 47.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48fc…11b4backed No | 23c | 44.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 42c | 44.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 71c | 43.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 58c | 43.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 67c | 43.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 46c | 39.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 48c | 38.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 37.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 57c | 34.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 45c | 33.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 51c | 33.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 46c | 32.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 44c | 32.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 31.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 31.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 30.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 28.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 46c | 28.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.