TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes52c1,799$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.72339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No8c489.48$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.914841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No40c438.65$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No48c392.06$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6132354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf828…5ca4backed No48c389.39$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No50c388.4$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.297919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No49c349.58$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.5526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes58c345$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14523723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes61c339.24$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.755644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c328.36$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9121854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No47c284$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6414454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes78c255.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.563132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c243.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No42c235.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No13c210.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e0…ceeebacked No47c199.52$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.041250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No14c190$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No42c188.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.385749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No49c160.4$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes49c157.54$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.642045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c156.41$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No47c147$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.576238.7%24 W · 38 L-10.7wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed No22c130$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12df…64d2backed No22c129.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.07650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.24070%28 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+29.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No46c112$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.52650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes65c109.55$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7517345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No45c106.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.018655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No42c100.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes60c100.03$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.033036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No41c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes72c97.94$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.121553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No38c95.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7713155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No41c95.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.211,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes77c95$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.586448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No42c94.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96100%0 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes53c92.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.521464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No13c88.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5322111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes57c85.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4944428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes60c83.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.522231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.163756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed No39c82.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.27933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes59c78.36$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.138844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes47c75.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.114944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d3…e130backed No41c72.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c72.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes59c72.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed No16c69.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.885913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No31c67.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.685954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes78c64.74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1410629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes47c63.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbd…4414backed Yes41c63.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No23c62.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5916051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No28c62.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.581662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No45c61.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d03…6c9fbacked No33c59.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes50c56.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1927143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No40c54.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.997335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No35c53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No47c51.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.54344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes58c49.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6411045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes58c48.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.385547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes35c47.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.672536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No28c47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3528558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48fc…11b4backed No23c44.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.642040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No42c44.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5914351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes71c43.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.75052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes58c43.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3818158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes67c43.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.432157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.715766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.32751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bee…50ccbacked No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No46c39.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No48c38.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.483369.7%23 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes48c37.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2511230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes57c34.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes58c34.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.662466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b27…5197backed No44c34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No45c33.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed No51c33.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.022437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No46c32.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.036765.7%44 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes44c32.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No53c31.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.914650%23 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes77c31.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2114445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No46c30.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.947561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes66c30.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.157427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No54c28.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.493357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No46c28.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.181533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes54c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7418669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.