TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,570 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa05f…0003backed Yes9c1,012$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.45248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c971.8$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.744138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed No77c735.02$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.442458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes24c560.3$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.51933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes25c496.89$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.613321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes14c441.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.065127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes28c435.61$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes7c426.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3122111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes8c339.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1612816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c318.08$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4327143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes7c294.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.095913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes21c282.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.127919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No75c268$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes6c250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.997353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes5c216.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.853928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No75c171.56$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…6f69backed No72c157$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes13c154.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.954129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes24c151.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.226224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1910629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes27c141.73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.586357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c124.43$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358775.9%66 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe547…271dbacked Yes24c120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.22420.8%5 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+214%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes25c118.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.38937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No78c117.79$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9714100%14 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No76c108.23$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0613155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No78c106.08$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.298655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1932354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3112040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes24c93.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No78c85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes33c84.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.888844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes23c82.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.999337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.716738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c78.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9423551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes29c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.817561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c72.9$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1235258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes37c72.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.54850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No79c72$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c70.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.818342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…8487backed No74c67.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes19c62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.689160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No71c61.94$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.965749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes27c60.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.431435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c60.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6232639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes31c59.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.293036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No73c54.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.455170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No78c51.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.249959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No75c48.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.29756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ae…697fbacked Yes24c42.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3331152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No77c40.23$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.255383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c0…b105backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.43884.2%32 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.815766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c39.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8934354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.463100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No73c35.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.615756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No77c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0513646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9218669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c29.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.623459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.828558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No78c25.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.525957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No79c24.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.215558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No77c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.294070%28 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+29.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No78c22.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7916254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa1…2f62backed No71c21.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1a…bd22backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9518…9e0cbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+119.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No77c19.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.496765.7%44 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No77c18.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1114553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No77c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.23666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.55881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.323164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No79c16.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.531070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4612…d575backed No74c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.161668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No76c14.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.463369.7%23 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No77c13.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1531635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.