World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e302c7fc0b89df57c12eb0d874c07da7cd20fe1824df97a2727f3a5a3df56c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 1,387$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.85 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 28c | 1,321$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.36 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 1,129$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.7 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 76c | 1,057$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 636.77$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.05 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 27c | 620.07$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.95 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 586.15$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.69 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 476.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.78 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 430.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.07 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 428.22$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 414.89$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.74 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 330.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.19 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 285.14$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 258.9$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 25c | 252.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 249.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 12c | 220.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 206.32$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 199.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.35 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed No | 78c | 193.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 25c | 185.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 169.55$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 161.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 159.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 42c | 145.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 76c | 139.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 77c | 129.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 129$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 15c | 122.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 120.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 20c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 18c | 114.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 28c | 107.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +259.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 12c | 101.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 24c | 97.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 29c | 97.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 13c | 92.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 70c | 90.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 87.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 86.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 84.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 26c | 83.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 83.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 75.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 17c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 66.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 20c | 65.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 21c | 65.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 64.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 63.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 63.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 26c | 63.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 60.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 57.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 56.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 18c | 56.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 21c | 53.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 75c | 53.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 52.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 50.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 50.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 21c | 49.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 48.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 47.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 37c | 47.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 37c | 47.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…a608backed No | 62c | 45.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 32.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…9f60backed No | 78c | 31.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 70c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked No | 70c | 19.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 15.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.