World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51d290b17e7d0599296d145c92ae3cfa93d0e91a40ca81d2922c2e56188763a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 898.84$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 639.37$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.26 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 61c | 601.6$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.59 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 554.83$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 513.77$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.7 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 53c | 451.47$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 60c | 399.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 53c | 384.61$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 59c | 330.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ac…ba39backed Yes | 72c | 304.19$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 56c | 266.65$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 40c | 259$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 78c | 256.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 240$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 54c | 209.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 45c | 190.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 56c | 186.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 52c | 176$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 57c | 167.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 163.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 155.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 152.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 151.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 144$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 66c | 139.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 138.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 137.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 47c | 136.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 30c | 135.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 62c | 135.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 133.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 37c | 110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 50c | 104.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 51c | 98.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 66c | 94.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 93.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 48c | 91.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 88.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 86.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 41c | 85.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 79.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 39c | 78.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…c010backed Yes | 70c | 71.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 53c | 67.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 66.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 66.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 43c | 62.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 62.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 60c | 62.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 61.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 57.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 36c | 56.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 46c | 56.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 55.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 52.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 51.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 51.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 40c | 49.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 51c | 49.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 47.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 43c | 46.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 44.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…1c76backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 43.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 57c | 41.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 61c | 38.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 47c | 38.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 37.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 34.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 38c | 34.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 43c | 34.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 34.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 31c | 33.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.