World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8446244f744cc5da611ce1bcaded5b69d8ca2741bdf4d5f11fbe16df8ef7fa5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,545$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 1,246$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.1 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 925.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 10c | 496.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 443.05$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 413.52$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 22c | 370.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 69c | 330.53$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 247.2$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 234.48$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 228.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 217$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 14c | 179.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 165$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…bf31backed No | 66c | 151.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 65c | 141.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 30c | 139.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 126.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 22c | 124.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 121.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 112.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 107$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 105.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 100.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 96.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 94.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 92.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 86.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 76.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 76.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 75.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 30c | 74.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 29c | 69.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 22c | 68.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 44c | 68.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 70c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 66.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 31c | 65.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed Yes | 30c | 63.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 63c | 59.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 59.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 29c | 56.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 55.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 21c | 55.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 53.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 20c | 51.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 46.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 46.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 45.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 44.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 42.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 41.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 36c | 41.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 30c | 40.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 39.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 31c | 37.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 39c | 33.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 33.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 29.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 28.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 70c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 75c | 22.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 72c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.