Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd982995adebea06b36b3087324e2f4cbbc6318812d05401219b7917f65513d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 31c | 690.16$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.41 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 657.71$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.38 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 624.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 612.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 31c | 334.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.73 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 278.66$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 257.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 225.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes | 69c | 219.61$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 217.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 49c | 216.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 206.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 38c | 192.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 66c | 191.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 183.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 180.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 162.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 61c | 161.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 75c | 158.54$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 20c | 140.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 8c | 126.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 125$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 43c | 122.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 44c | 117.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 111$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 108.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 82.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 30c | 73.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 69.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 72c | 63.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 61.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 25c | 59.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 37c | 56.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 76c | 56.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 43c | 54.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 56c | 54.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 50.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 78c | 44.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 42.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 58c | 40.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 63c | 37.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 43c | 36.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 33.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 29.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 27.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 25.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 24.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 22.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 20.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 76c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.