Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb034071d56a7dde2d5764da4abc8afbf8665a972e2d90814fec08b3a4ec4b8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 2,030$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 671.69$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 39c | 452.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.7 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 445.45$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 416.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 387.09$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 357.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 307.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 71c | 253.59$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 247.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 246.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 225.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 19c | 219.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 218$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 212.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 37c | 212.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 6c | 196.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 194.32$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 36c | 192.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 179.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 35c | 171$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 64c | 168.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 148.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 144.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 144.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 10c | 141.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 135.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 64c | 134.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 57c | 131.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 125.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 123.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 120.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 114.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 72c | 110.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 108.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 65c | 105.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 103.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 59c | 101.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 43c | 98.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 59c | 95.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 57c | 93.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…80dfbacked Yes | 66c | 93.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 36c | 93.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 39c | 93.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 27c | 92.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 42c | 91.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 37c | 87.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 13c | 87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 85.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 40c | 85.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 80.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 65c | 71.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 71.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 43c | 71.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 79c | 70.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 60c | 66.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 35c | 66.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 28c | 64.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 64c | 61.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 59.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 36c | 55.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 77c | 52.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 60c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5900backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 63c | 46.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3770backed Yes | 60c | 44.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 44.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 44.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 40.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 67c | 39.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 57c | 38.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…bdeebacked No | 38c | 38.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 38.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 35c | 33.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 31.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 56c | 30.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 55c | 27.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 76c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 56c | 24.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.