World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238378ffe357b2adb8f8d34bd105df458da3b0a92e5f56d19d5412900619d949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 1,042$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.31 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 907.5$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.31 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 742.27$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.55 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 59c | 668.05$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.65 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 664.01$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.75 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 8c | 608.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 551.03$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.82 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 467.55$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 53c | 428.07$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.77 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 335$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 68c | 309.07$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 303.52$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 270.57$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 266.93$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 51c | 266.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 227.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 220.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 219.91$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 38c | 210.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 177.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 64c | 177.06$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbb…54e9backed Yes | 44c | 173.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 163$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 37c | 159.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 45c | 154.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 153.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 147.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 52c | 147.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 52c | 145.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 136.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 56c | 132.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 125.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 64c | 121.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 121$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 115.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 108.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 106.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 103.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 98.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 88.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 87.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 87.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 37c | 82.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 81.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 79.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 78.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 45c | 72.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 47c | 72.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 71.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…bc44backed Yes | 50c | 70.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 63.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 32c | 63.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 62.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 59.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 27c | 59.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 53.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 36c | 52.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 48c | 51.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 48c | 51.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 33c | 50.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 44c | 50.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 49.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 48.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 26c | 46.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 44.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 43.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 50c | 42.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 35c | 37.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 28c | 36.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 42c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 59c | 32.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.