TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,568
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,568 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c1,042$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes37c907.5$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.319337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c742.27$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5539231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes59c668.05$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.655052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No60c664.01$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.7514959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes8c608.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.813531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c551.03$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.8221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c467.55$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.0132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No53c428.07$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7713357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c335$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3928558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes68c309.07$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2107623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No53c303.52$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8121854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No67c270.57$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5413646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c266.93$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3523551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked No51c266.3$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes31c250$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6910629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes44c227.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes35c220.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No50c219.91$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.525954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes38c210.52$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.085837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes52c177.56$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.817741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No64c177.06$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.181030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbb…54e9backed Yes44c173.94$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c163$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes37c159.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3416934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes45c154.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No68c153.31$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7322355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No55c147.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9524637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes52c147.8$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2811636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No52c145.81$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.512653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes33c136.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No56c132.69$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.674645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No52c125.31$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.652958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No64c121.62$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes28c121$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8815036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No63c115.24$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.699558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c110$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7915766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No59c108.9$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6113155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No74c106.76$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.768844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes22c103.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8511045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847e…a592backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No26c98.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4816051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c98.23$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7332639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No70c90$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.065945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes44c90$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes34c88.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.918937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c88$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c87.6$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes44c87.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.37837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes37c82.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.422759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c81.76$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No65c79.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c78.51$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1736055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes45c72.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.672133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No47c72.09$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.22470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c71.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.278236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…bc44backed Yes50c70.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes29c63.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.743842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes32c63.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes33c62.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.632634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1310733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.762777.8%21 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.318342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No59c59.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3918348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes27c59.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.175536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No55c53.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.144355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No36c52.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.384515.6%7 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes38c52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes48c51.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.963225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes48c51.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.952231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes39c51.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes33c50.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.713321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No44c50.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.271752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.576960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes36c49.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9714521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c48.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.318662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No59c47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0812640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No74c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.25170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes26c46.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.963237.5%12 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c44.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7923459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No29c43.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.737335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes50c42.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.518762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd73…3cc0backed No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No64c37.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.57236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed Yes35c37.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed No28c36.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.545913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No67c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.124443.2%19 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes42c35.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.657561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No76c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.066850%34 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbf…d779backed Yes59c32.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3950%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.