World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe714896954a39f1b9f2d6de1945e5c8e447b9fc102b95e755c0c3046169447e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 18c | 2,186$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.2 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 3c | 1,427$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 18c | 866.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.98 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 765.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.85 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 37c | 585.57$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.87 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 547.46$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.96 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 442.14$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.45 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 38c | 441.1$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.78 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Yes | 22c | 416.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 336.92$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.16 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 308.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.21 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 22c | 255.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 21c | 252$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.44 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 250.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.37 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 13c | 215.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 210.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.33 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 11c | 201.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.12 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 80c | 193.76$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.47 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 12c | 192$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.92 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 185$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8333backed Yes | 9c | 181.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +555%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 71c | 155.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 13c | 155.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 28c | 140.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 129.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.13 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 17c | 122.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 116$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 106.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 21c | 105.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 14c | 105.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 76c | 99.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 95.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 13c | 79.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…bc44backed No | 45c | 77.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 77.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 69c | 67.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 64.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 22c | 64.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 68c | 59.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 73c | 52.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 42.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 42.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 19.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.