TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes43c2,388$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.917623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes44c818.09$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.0610043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c659.22$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.3144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No70c589.87$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.2421844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No61c577.29$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6814959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No50c399.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20023723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes21c322.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8612816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c322.07$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1213646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c274$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6528558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c255.8$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes25c246.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.947741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No47c240.08$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1321854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed No56c225.55$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.043030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c224.61$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7923551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.45052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No62c217$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.185954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes21c214.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbb…54e9backed Yes39c208.97$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes34c180.28$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.569558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes20c170$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No61c158.71$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9922355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No70c157.15$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.15966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed Yes45c153.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No71c150.25$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.322751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes38c148.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58e…daeebacked Yes67c145.54$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes14c143.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.823212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes27c139.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6510629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No75c138.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.349337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No63c138.24$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes18c138$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4410733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No61c133.28$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7618662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes8c123.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12035%7 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c123.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4618342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1815766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c107.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c106.66$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1440648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes48c103.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes48c103.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c9…eac8backed No75c102.76$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed No79c101.87$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.196955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c92.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes28c90$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.411053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes40c88.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.48236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes44c85.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.646043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes36c85.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.874515.6%7 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No55c85$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.251250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes33c79.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.453321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No62c79.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4612055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2660…afa2backed No65c76.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No56c75.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.222470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.561,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c72.5$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9827143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No66c70.24$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.877353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked Yes57c70.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No69c65.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.163171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No44c64.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.092958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No62c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.956448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.86960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f17…bc44backed No59c59.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.661963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes37c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.332634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c57.4$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes44c56.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8413155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c56.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2344428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1f07…7573backed Yes25c55.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes45c54.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.582751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes24c54.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.08922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No63c53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.411353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d65…a673backed Yes49c51.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes54c50.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3312640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No36c43.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.684052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes32c43.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1418158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No47c41.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.174355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes46c40.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.518762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.76911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1326355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes34c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No50c39.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No60c39.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.817952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf69…6f13backed Yes47c39.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bc…8c38backed No54c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes39c38.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No62c38.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.717236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x322c…8fe9backed No62c38.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dde…efdfbacked No54c35.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes41c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.511450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes35c32.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No67c32.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6914351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No65c32.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.317842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.