Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b8cb46444cea91aafe2f4d089078b586c8d73ef298c1941efdb122e550c645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 61c | 594.82$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.82 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 531.78$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 2c | 471.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 307.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 245.6$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 222.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 215.81$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 206.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 36c | 206$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 37c | 205$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 186.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 79c | 186.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 181$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 137.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 134.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 67c | 133.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 24c | 122.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 119.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 112$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 105.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 102.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 31c | 93.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 20c | 93.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 69c | 86.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 29c | 83.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 82.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 77.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 73.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 59c | 68.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 68.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 67.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 66.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 62.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 59.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 52.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 49.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 48.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 28c | 47.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 45.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 70c | 43.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 38c | 41.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 39.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 37c | 36.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 40c | 33.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 33c | 33.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 40c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 39c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 67c | 26.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked No | 62c | 24.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 65c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 62c | 16.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.