Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f426ca1789282b1cdbbdeac04d81712fa87d833a8e38171eecbbadd39d6164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 18c | 546.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 487.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 478.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 334.15$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 40c | 284.72$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 280.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 180.46$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 71c | 180$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 177.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 159.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 154.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 35c | 148.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 134.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 130.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 28c | 125.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 120.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 119.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 103.91$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 90.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 36c | 88.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 28c | 87.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 83.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 73.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 71.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 70.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 68.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 64c | 65.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 63.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 62.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 23c | 55.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 54.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 65c | 51.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 51.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 24c | 50.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 49.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 46.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 32c | 45.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 35.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 28.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 42c | 25.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 78c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.