Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe32bc4c6aa027e80482c252035416234e58ff2925555e83e3894d752b3db4ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 2,018$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 1,131$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.38 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 710.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.23 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 4c | 428.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 9c | 428.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.34 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 51c | 390.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.85 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 330.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 299.1$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 6c | 244.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.31 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 10c | 210.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 7c | 197$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.21 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 7c | 185.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 24c | 177.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 174.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 171.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 170.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 44c | 166.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 38c | 162.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 53c | 144.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 141.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 19c | 141$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 130.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 30c | 122.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 12c | 119$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 113.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 110.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 110.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 9c | 108.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.83 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 58c | 102.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 97.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 36c | 90.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 89.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 86.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 84.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 16c | 78.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 76.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 74.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 19c | 74.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 70c | 68.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 66.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 62.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 79c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 66c | 45.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 67c | 36.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 28.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 23.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 60c | 19.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.