Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65ec93f3ae58abcda87aeca777532d6be74557412bdca428cfa1d43f3d81920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 423.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 409.02$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 22c | 321.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 238.87$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 7c | 169.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 24c | 165.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 22c | 163.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 159.53$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 154.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 13c | 141.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 124.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 108.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 78.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 79c | 75.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 65.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 55.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 38.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 36.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 74c | 26.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 78c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…6409backed No | 77c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.