World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb0d998190b5171c2c3931c2f23745c982b5a85f1329289f27b44bc0ef15d863
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,335$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.3 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 75c | 1,288$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.22 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 11c | 749.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 722.43$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 717.24$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.04 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 664.41$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 536.71$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.32 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 536.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 465.57$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.81 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 69c | 458.26$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 71c | 302.77$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 274.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.72 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 251.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 251.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.46 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 248.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 35c | 246.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.48 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 15c | 242.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 33c | 224.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 210.3$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 67c | 185.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 35c | 182.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 30c | 178.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 174.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 61c | 160.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 160$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 158.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 35c | 148.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 52c | 145.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 145$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed No | 50c | 137.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 135.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…daeebacked Yes | 63c | 130.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 128.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 51c | 128.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 10c | 125.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 118.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 58c | 118.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 37c | 116.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 114.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 110.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 107.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 38c | 105.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 102.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 30c | 101.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 96.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 34c | 95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 65c | 92.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 89.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 56c | 89.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 88.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 16c | 84.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 30c | 83.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 80.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 63c | 78.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 75.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…40debacked No | 70c | 70.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 33c | 68.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 68.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 25c | 67.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 66.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes | 80c | 66.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 62.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 37c | 61.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 35c | 60.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed Yes | 17c | 60.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…7979backed Yes | 35c | 56.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 39c | 56.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 47c | 56.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…edd9backed No | 55c | 53.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 46c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 24c | 52.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 39c | 51.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 50.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 50.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 38c | 47.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 65c | 46.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 31c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 36c | 46.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 44.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 44.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…7e3abacked Yes | 40c | 43.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 42.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 42.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.