TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,025 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c1,335$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes75c1,288$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.227427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No11c749.61$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.684841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No27c722.43$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No53c717.24$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.0422355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c664.41$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34714959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes50c536.71$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.324748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No12c536.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No54c465.57$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8128558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes69c458.26$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.26450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes71c302.77$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.935052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes35c274.55$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7210629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No7c251.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5610414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c251.14$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4618662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes37c248.74$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.796330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes35c246.09$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4818342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes15c242.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.851435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes33c224.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.442835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No61c210.3$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No24c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.335916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe718…1e2bbacked No67c185.68$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.02785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No35c182.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No30c178.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.984827.1%13 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No16c174.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2616852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No61c160.13$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.578854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes30c160$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4411045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No11c158.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8614521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed No35c148.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.272458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No52c145.23$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.741838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-39.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c145$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed No50c137.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No58c135.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6315954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58e…daeebacked Yes63c130.55$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.65875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No12c128.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.726346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes51c128.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.747741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No10c125.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.216051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes19c120$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5810733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c118.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.881,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No58c118.2$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.06785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No37c116.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.513212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes48c114.06$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1918638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No18c110.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7415056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c107.17$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes38c105.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.915248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c102.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7223551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes30c101.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.454951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.257248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No59c96.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.976261.3%38 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes34c95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7111636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No65c92.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.892254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes36c90$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c90$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c89.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes56c89.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c88.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes16c84.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.921241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No30c83.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c80.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0244428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No63c78.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No51c75.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4212055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No76c75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffdd…40debacked No70c70.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No33c68.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.022470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No25c68.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3316755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No25c67.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0122111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8810320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c66.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4432639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes80c66.09$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.391266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c62.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5714467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes37c61.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes35c60.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ca…d665backed Yes17c60.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes48c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.396330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacba…7979backed Yes35c56.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+55.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes39c56.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.681030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No47c56.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.834854.2%26 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f5…edd9backed No55c53.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No46c52.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed No24c52.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.365913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes23c52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9710837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes39c51.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.481855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed No79c50.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No52c50.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2713155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes31c50.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.316357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc2…4837backed Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+79.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes38c47.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.92161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No65c46.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No31c46.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.644355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No36c46.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.442958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.47560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes24c44.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9813646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes45c44.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.18865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cca…7e3abacked Yes40c43.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No56c43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No66c42.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1418035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes51c42.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.085547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.