TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,795 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c772.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8712816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No78c620.4$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0122355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes25c591.4$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes9c461$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.422626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes22c446.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed Yes36c445.93$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.721566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes7c439.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.89128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No80c403.83$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4721854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes34c365.25$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.552927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes32c290$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.455644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c271.75$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7772…c40abacked Yes15c251.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+83.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No76c234.79$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8118662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes12c222.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.246224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No64c200.9$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3213348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No73c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.415916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No80c197$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No74c188.45$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.084827.1%13 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes21c143.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.918236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5daf…7d98backed Yes18c136.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c135$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes10c132.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4314521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes22c127$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.531225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No67c120.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.378854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes21c114.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes27c107.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2427143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87ec…138fbacked Yes29c107.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes29c104.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.732231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c102.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.811,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes37c97.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.142751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes15c91.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3614827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.816738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No67c84.83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4113155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No75c84.59$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2214445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes30c83.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No77c81.8$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.947560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No77c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes33c78.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2618158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes36c77.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.248844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No72c77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.865961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes16c77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.323237.5%12 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No66c71.56$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.331442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No78c67.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8413646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes28c62.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes27c60.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.495149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes31c55.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.093030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes21c53.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3610837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No79c50.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6911045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1417345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3d5…c693backed Yes30c49.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes22c45.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No77c41.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.432850%14 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4647…d97fbacked No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce5…6233backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+54.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.62268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked Yes26c39.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No68c38.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.342958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9efe…6357backed No76c37.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.02520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No72c37.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4618035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No79c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.776357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes30c34.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5618669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No62c31.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.834355.8%24 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No78c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.58775.9%66 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No72c27.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.778865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No75c25.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56261.3%38 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No77c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2914454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No72c20.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.621275%9 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.49756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.75875.9%44 W · 14 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x839e…8a61backed No66c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick70cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No79c17.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.667353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No67c15.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.03966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No80c12.96$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.633212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.