World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd89e421c3c2281ddcb9a72f873d064fbdd1788abc9ea8f882fa2a69ff87821d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 841.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 20c | 787.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 537.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 471.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 4c | 422.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 32c | 381.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 10c | 368.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 5c | 348.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 346.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 21c | 332.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 301.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 9c | 288.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 21c | 237.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 17c | 226.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 79c | 217.87$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 211.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 49c | 202.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 34c | 202.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 16c | 183.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 14c | 168.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 11c | 162.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 157.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 156.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 77c | 134.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 12c | 120.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 12c | 120.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 114.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 24c | 104.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 94.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 90.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…7a7dbacked Yes | 23c | 83.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 34c | 78.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 72.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes | 16c | 71.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 65.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 78c | 64.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 70c | 56.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 80c | 41.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…7e3abacked Yes | 36c | 37.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 30.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 72c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 75c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…be81backed No | 79c | 13.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.