Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcce933829a2a3a66043487859561ae13967763d7079f82f8cccda3ba1a7e636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…d061backed Up | 63c | 25,323$16,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,249.45 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 47c | 9,704$4,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,558.95 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked Down | 45c | 7,278$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Down | 45c | 5,198$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.2 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 28c | 4,485$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.51 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked Down | 52c | 3,755$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Down | 15c | 2,661$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.17 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 46c | 2,417$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.56 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 12c | 2,157$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.05 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 17c | 1,870$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.58 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 46c | 1,354$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.64 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 48c | 1,341$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.35 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 53c | 1,250$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.88 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Down | 5c | 1,194$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked Down | 34c | 1,070$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 20c | 1,040$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 2c | 1,009$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Down | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Down | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Down | 50c | 980$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.8 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…a4e1backed Up | 51c | 890.11$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 21c | 889.27$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 28c | 838.57$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.31 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Down | 46c | 831.09$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.47 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Up | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 14c | 748.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 24c | 722.6$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.96 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Down | 6c | 619.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 21c | 542.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 79c | 469.92$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…7657backed Down | 30c | 392.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 13c | 316.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Down | 35c | 302.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Up | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed Down | 15c | 288.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Down | 15c | 252.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ec11backed Down | 16c | 248.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ead…4127backed Down | 45c | 224$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Down | 58c | 224$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 74c | 213.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Up | 66c | 209.11$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 60c | 209$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…3b4fbacked Up | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…8022backed Up | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Down | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Up | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Up | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…0a1bbacked Down | 56c | 161.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…26abbacked Down | 20c | 160.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Down | 46c | 153.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…f22ebacked Up | 50c | 116.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Up | 44c | 115.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 52c | 96.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Down | 15c | 94.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Up | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Up | 63c | 56.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Up | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 75c | 40.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Up | 52c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Down | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Up | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…6a26backed Up | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Up | 62c | 37.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…0801backed Down | 64c | 36.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Down | 44c | 29.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…3028backed Up | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.