Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c8a5cf21474ca96ddc4b8f49b95069143ac11ab9bd9ab59c43683c3e18f498
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 26c | 269.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 73c | 217$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 24c | 209.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 199.49$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 22c | 196.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 79c | 174$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 11c | 128.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 23c | 95.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 29c | 84.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 78.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 64c | 71.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…16dfbacked Yes | 23c | 64.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 50.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 50.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 42.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 46c | 40.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 69c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…9c91backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.