Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76129e98263f7c4ec485ebb6cab70e66e8b4794cd42dadbdb801dc0e5e213442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 41c | 851.17$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.15 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 22c | 406.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…f402backed Yes | 73c | 383.05$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 58c | 382$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.9 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 253.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked Yes | 45c | 219.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 27c | 217$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 23c | 215$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 58c | 202.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 29c | 199.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…7663backed Yes | 60c | 164$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…5975backed Yes | 78c | 135.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 61c | 130.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 117.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 67c | 100.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0162…8538backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…2c8fbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 26c | 78.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 63.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 51.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 36c | 43.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 42.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 40.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 37c | 35.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked Yes | 62c | 34.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 64c | 32.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 57c | 30.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 65c | 27.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…607cbacked Yes | 67c | 27.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.