Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8defdff40155a15b50f3aaefc3ebe495c6e1d4e02af6bf0ee774a7fcd908fb7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 51c | 440.73$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 3c | 399.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 49c | 216.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 188.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…aeedbacked No | 53c | 169.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 61c | 164.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 47c | 154$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 128.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 40c | 116.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 50c | 113.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 48c | 100.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 55c | 99.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 97.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 89.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 86.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 53c | 83.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 50c | 74.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 64.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 58.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 56c | 53.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 49.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 47.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 47c | 41.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…0529backed Yes | 37c | 41.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 40.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 50c | 36.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 36.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 62c | 32.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…6012backed No | 57c | 32.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 30.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 30.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 73c | 30.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…3342backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…b206backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 20.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 75c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.