Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb67e8c7512835544b3b98eaeb4c9f3e948aeee55e458732578aef747f02bbf10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,031$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.35 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 1,474$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.71 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 591.56$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 38c | 206.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 49c | 205.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 182.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 128.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 126.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 118.57$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…3d88backed Yes | 33c | 116.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 32c | 113.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 61c | 108.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 95.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 84.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 79.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 74.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 65.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 62.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 61.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 39c | 61.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 58.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 57.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…0529backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 42.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 47c | 36.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 32.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…3220backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 40c | 31.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 56c | 30.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 56c | 29.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…ffdabacked Yes | 37c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 28.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 44c | 25.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 23.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.