Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7e17058fc48450f890d802ba5e7279c525566dbde812352d87e8bf5dc0a9892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 1,640$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 741.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 569.67$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 545.83$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…8f5bbacked Yes | 45c | 401.39$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 396.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 348.58$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 306.92$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 306.25$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 21c | 285.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 22c | 283.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 272.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 232.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 212.08$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 212.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 210.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…bfecbacked No | 78c | 208.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 13c | 168.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 167.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 166.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…9131backed No | 63c | 156.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 32c | 154.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 23c | 146.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 33c | 143.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 143.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 8c | 141.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 8c | 136.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 136.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 79c | 116.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 48c | 115.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 106.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 79c | 105.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 31c | 100.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 95.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 92.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 21c | 86.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 79.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 77.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 77.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 76.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 63c | 76.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 74.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 74.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 21c | 70.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 68.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 66.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 49c | 58.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 67c | 57.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 56.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 34c | 56.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 62c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 49.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 49.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 48.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 51c | 47.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 40.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 57c | 39.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 34.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 51c | 33.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 49c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 31.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 30.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…e8e1backed Yes | 38c | 29.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 52c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 29.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 27.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 25.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 58c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.