Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ef11d7ad85e6e67b1d5765edb11f038c3bfa2fd2377dd374263220e870c649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 1,484$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.37 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 885.04$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 611.46$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.48 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 525.54$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 483.49$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 53c | 455.15$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.48 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 412.59$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.31 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 408.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.41 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 351.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.67 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 32c | 300.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.66 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 34c | 249.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 237.81$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 31c | 222.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.45 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 218.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 42c | 197.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 70c | 190.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 189.42$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 186.7$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 181.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 175$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 58c | 172.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 169.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 57c | 151.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 54c | 140.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 44c | 133.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 131.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 28c | 131$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 127.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 122.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 121$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 74c | 120.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 57c | 119.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 114$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 113.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 32c | 108.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 105.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 58c | 104.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 30c | 95.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 54c | 94.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 90.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 35c | 85.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 84.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 84.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 42c | 83.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 77.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 34c | 69.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 71c | 68.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 68.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 68.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 65.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 63.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 62.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 61.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 60.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 59c | 59.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 58.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 57.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 57.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 57.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 42c | 55.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 64c | 54.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 54c | 54.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 76c | 53.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 34c | 52.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 49.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 48.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 48.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 62c | 46.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 74c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 43.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 39.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 38.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 66c | 37.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 76c | 36.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 57c | 34.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 34.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 32c | 33.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 78c | 31.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…1956backed Yes | 76c | 31.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.