Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b24a88848b1ecece22adba633f9b0f6842f2d57aac5ea709a26dbed57f73837
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 1,355$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 983.1$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 584.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 11c | 427.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 379.04$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 18c | 336.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 20c | 299.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 26c | 231.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 12c | 196.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 66c | 151.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 140.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 17c | 124.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 122.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 18c | 119.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 15c | 109.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 85.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 78c | 74.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed No | 77c | 70.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 24c | 62.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 57.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 57.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 23c | 52.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 49.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 39.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 77c | 39.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed Yes | 33c | 33.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 68c | 24.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.