TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd351…b2d9backed Yes77c1,785$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes48c664.54$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.5423723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No38c583.21$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.093917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes60c499.91$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.975644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No40c475.09$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3923551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No41c459.14$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No37c404.15$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.618655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes45c402$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.591526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No13c367.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.632951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No24c346.16$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.424841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes44c313.15$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.975052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No31c309$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c283.21$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No79c278.57$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.71752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c262.74$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7923459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c255.35$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9236055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No50c248.39$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.992751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c232.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.993243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes65c232.32$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.321770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No29c211.3$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1821854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes49c204.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.926955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes21c199.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9912816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No58c187.29$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3113646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No54c184.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7527143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2bc…8c38backed No20c181.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c181.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No54c180.2$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No58c172.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed No30c166.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No41c162.34$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1715056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes68c159.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.036448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No35c158.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7813155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No14c152.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.656346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c150.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.781,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No30c146.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3816852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No18c146$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.414954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No38c141.26$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.023551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d1…eab3backed Yes66c135.8$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c134.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8439414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No15c118.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2516051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c117.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5435258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No24c116.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0216051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed No35c115.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No30c109.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c104.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8439231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed No44c102.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.97427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5311045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…33b0backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c99.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No45c98.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No36c93.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5716450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes52c92.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.943036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.632354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes79c92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3213357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes42c86.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.618438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes45c85.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.014944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No39c84.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.145954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c84.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5326355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No27c84.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6515954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes28c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.716738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No25c79.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1724637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes63c76.06$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.495547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed No30c75.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes43c75.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.474951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes38c75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.810837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes68c73.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No46c73.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4816755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No35c73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.928558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No34c71.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8314753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5117345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes53c68.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.041662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c68.15$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0223044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes58c67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e4…e298backed Yes74c63.29$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes65c61.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c61.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.244428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x244a…d473backed Yes80c59.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes41c59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No27c58.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.02862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No34c58.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.994146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes40c58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.943842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No43c57.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8418662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes69c55.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.522470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes64c53.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2426632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No55c52.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.012268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c52.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0915766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No36c50.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.221233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.991553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff70…78abbacked No44c47.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes65c46.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes65c46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+41.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes76c44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.561136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes47c43.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes68c42.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.872157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No52c42.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No68c41.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.641428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes79c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.