World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9980400877ac09715f1f7d045aaf0132412f577cffd7ca2371cce67d8c146ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 77c | 1,785$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 664.54$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.54 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 38c | 583.21$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.09 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 60c | 499.91$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.97 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 475.09$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.39 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 459.14$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.37 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 404.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 402$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 13c | 367.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 24c | 346.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 44c | 313.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.97 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 31c | 309$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 283.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 278.57$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 262.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.79 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 255.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 50c | 248.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 232.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 232.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 211.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 49c | 204.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.99 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 187.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 184.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…8c38backed No | 20c | 181.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 181.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 180.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 58c | 172.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 30c | 166.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 162.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 159.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 35c | 158.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 152.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 150.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 146.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 146$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 38c | 141.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…eab3backed Yes | 66c | 135.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 134.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 118.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 117.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 116.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 35c | 115.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 30c | 109.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 104.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed No | 44c | 102.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…33b0backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 99.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 98.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 93.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 52c | 92.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 86.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 85.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 84.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 84.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 84.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 79.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 63c | 76.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed No | 30c | 75.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 43c | 75.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 68c | 73.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 73.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 71.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 53c | 68.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 68.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…e298backed Yes | 74c | 63.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 65c | 61.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 61.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…d473backed Yes | 80c | 59.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 27c | 58.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 34c | 58.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 43c | 57.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 69c | 55.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 64c | 53.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 55c | 52.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 52.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 36c | 50.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 44c | 47.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 65c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 47c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 68c | 42.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 52c | 42.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 68c | 41.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.