World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bb3c2f1604bbcad4ff2a2a6084e0e1526f2e4cc712b0a7770fcd6e86c82a94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 1,027$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.95 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 756.95$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.28 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 646.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 31c | 645.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 30c | 484.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 391.37$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 320.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 297.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 33c | 239.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 224.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 34c | 223$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 204.43$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked No | 78c | 193.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 179.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 8c | 175.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 173.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 164.93$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 153.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 8c | 148.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 16c | 133.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 129.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 17c | 129.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 127.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 124.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 122.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 62c | 120.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 94.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 94.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 37c | 90.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 86.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 84.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 80.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 74.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 71.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 38c | 70.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 68.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 65c | 61.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 58.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 56.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 55.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 41c | 53.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 53.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 49.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 21c | 48.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 24c | 47.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 24c | 46.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 42.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 42.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 41.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 41.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 39.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 56c | 38.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 37.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 53c | 34.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 32.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 32.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 31.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 71c | 31.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 31.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 69c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8f…2268backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 70c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 25.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 25.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 42c | 24.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 23.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 68c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.