World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69aac71c8416cae2646fdf8e7851ccca4d08e8056013f81f4765527406943618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 2,530$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.99 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 32c | 2,315$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.76 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 14c | 976.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 481.67$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.29 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 437.88$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 435.62$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 407.63$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 395.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes | 28c | 351.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 297.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 284.4$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 261.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 15c | 260.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 10c | 252.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 246.66$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 17c | 245.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 224.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 72c | 199.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 189.29$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 66c | 182.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 75c | 176.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…ce8bbacked Yes | 27c | 176.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 71c | 172$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 10c | 171.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 145.13$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 23c | 142.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 125.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 121.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 15c | 109.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 79c | 98.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 87.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 32c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 82.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 80.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 78.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 79c | 78.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 16c | 77.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 45cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 79c | 74.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 73.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 63.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 63.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 61.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 67c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 54.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 22c | 49.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 49.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 48.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 47.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 45.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 42.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…8919backed Yes | 25c | 41.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 19.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 79c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked No | 80c | 18.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 80c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5640…2edfbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 80c | 13.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.